Relatório Trimestral
Carmignac P. Credit : Letter from the Fund Manager
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-9.28%Carmignac Portfolio Credit's performance
in the 2nd quarter of 2022 for the A EUR Share class
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-8.18%Reference indicator’s performance
in the 2nd quarter of 2022 for the 75% ICE BofA Euro Corporate Index and 25% ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index
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+4.00%Annualized performance of the Fund since launch
versus -0.89% for the reference indicator1
Carmignac Portfolio Credit recorded a negative performance of -9.28% during the second quarter of 2022, for the A EUR Acc share class, and its reference indicator¹ (75% ICE BofA Euro Corporate Index and 25% ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index) lost -8.18%. Year-to-date, the fund is down -14.77% vs -12.91-% for its reference indicator, an underperformance of -1.86%.
As we indicated last quarter, the underperformance is more than fully explained by the performance of our Russian investments, which detracted more than -3% from the fund’s return so far this year. This underperformance has been mitigated by the high carry of the portfolio as well as by our significant level of hedging since the beginning of 2022.
Quarterly Performance Review
In the immediate aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine, we were surprised to see credit markets treating the war as an isolated event, with negative valuation impacts largely centered on companies with direct link to Ukraine or Russia. Our view, however, was that a prolonged conflict would steer inflation to a destabilizing level for many issuers since it was curtailing large supplies of key commodities and accelerating the trend towards deglobalization (with the reshoring of production capacity and inventory). Additionally, since these strong headwinds impacting businesses are inflationary in nature, we expected that they would significantly hinder central banks’ ability to ease monetary policy.
How is the fund positioned?
We took stock of these developments and repositioned the fund in early March. We stepped up our hedging by raising our CDS protection on HY indices to 27.5% of the fund’s value. We also increased our exposure to attractive bonds issued by companies that stand to benefit from an inflationary environment (many of them in the energy and commodities space) as well our exposure to selected CLOs tranches. These CLO tranches are floating rate, meaning they are well insulated against interest rate volatility; they offer generous returns compared to their fundamental risks and are structured in a way that prevents capital losses even under very pessimistic recession scenarios.
In the four months following the invasion, inflation indeed soared to high levels in most economies and is now starting to impact many companies’ profits. Most central banks have embarked on determined tightening cycles in response. All these factors have caused, credit markets to reprice severely to the downside.
Our positioning has remained largely the same, except for a modest reduction in our hedging position, due to the widening of HY credit indices. But we still have a meaningful amount of protection since we believe the current environment calls on us to keep options open and maintain a conservative net exposure. After their historically bad performance of the first half of 2022, we think credit markets are now very attractive, to an extent we have only seen a handful of times since the beginning of our careers. Today, the fund is invested in a very diversified set of securities, offering yields far in excess of their fundamental cost of risk. As a result, the fund has a compelling carry, even after factoring the cost of hedging.
What is our outlook for the coming months?
Performance could well remain volatile in the coming weeks but, with a year-end horizon, the carry of the fund can absorb a meaningful amount of widening – past data indicate that the level of carry we currently have is consistent with strong returns. Additionally, the market value of our Russian holdings is far below their net present value even under most conservative recovery scenarios: downside is limited going forward and there is significant upside potential if tensions between Russia and the rest of the world abate.
1Reference indicator : 75% ICE BofA Euro Corporate Index + 25% ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index (Coupons reinvested, Quarterly rebalanced)
Carmignac Portfolio Credit A EUR Acc
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
2024 (YTD) ? Desde o início do ano até à data |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carmignac Portfolio Credit A EUR Acc | - | - | - | +1.79 % | +1.69 % | +20.93 % | +10.39 % | +2.96 % | -13.01 % | +10.58 % | +7.45 % |
Indicador de Referência | - | - | - | +1.13 % | -1.74 % | +7.50 % | +2.80 % | +0.06 % | -13.31 % | +9.00 % | +4.55 % |
Deslocar para a direita para ver a tabela completa
3 anos | 5 anos | 10 anos | |
---|---|---|---|
Carmignac Portfolio Credit A EUR Acc | +0.95 % | +3.52 % | - |
Indicador de Referência | -0.60 % | +0.35 % | - |
Deslocar para a direita para ver a tabela completa
Fonte: Carmignac em 30/09/2024
Custos de entrada : | 2,00% do montante que paga ao entrar neste investimento. Este é o valor máximo que lhe será cobrado. Carmignac Gestion não cobra custos de entrada. A pessoa que lhe vender o produto irá informá-lo do custo efetivo. |
Custos de saída : | Não cobramos uma comissão de saída para este produto. |
Comissões de gestão e outros custos administrativos ou operacionais : | 1,20% O impacto dos custos que suportamos anualmente pela gestão dos seus investimentos e outras comissões administrativas. Esta é uma estimativa baseada nos custos efetivos ao longo do último ano. |
Comissões de rendimento : | 20,00% quando a classe de ações supera o indicador de referência durante o período de desempenho. Será pago também no caso de a classe de ações ter superado o indicador de referência, mas teve um desempenho negativo. O baixo desempenho é recuperado por 5 anos. O valor real varia dependendo do desempenho do seu investimento. A estimativa de custo agregado acima inclui a média dos últimos 5 anos, ou desde a criação do produto se for inferior a 5 anos. |
Custos de transação : | 0,43% O impacto dos custos inerentes às nossas operações de compra e de venda de investimentos subjacentes ao produto. |
Carmignac Portfolio Credit A EUR Acc
Horizonte de investimento mínimo recomendado
Risco mais baixo Risco mais elevado
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CRÉDITO: O risco de crédito consiste no risco de incumprimento do emitente.
TAXA DE JURO: O risco de taxa de juro resulta na diminuição do valor patrimonial líquido no caso de variações nas taxas de juro.
LIQUIDEZ: As distorções temporárias do mercado podem influenciar as condições de avaliação em que o Fundo pode ser levado a liquidar, iniciar ou modificar as suas posições.
GESTÃO DISCRICIONÁRIA: Previsões de alterações nos mercados financeiros feitas pela Sociedade Gestora surtem um efeito direto sobre o desempenho do Fundo, o qual depende das ações selecionadas.
Este fundo não possui capital garantido.